Specter (D - PA)?

Great article over at WhoRunsGov.com today about Arlen Specter, the Employee Free Choice Act, and his chances at getting re-elected next year.

Back in 2004, Specter was barely able to hold onto the GOP nomination for the Senate seat he's held since 1981, even with the help of W., who was then still popular at least among Republicans.  With him being one of three Republicans to break the party line and vote for cloture for the stimulus bill, he hasn't won any additional supporters on that side of the aisle.  The same conservative opponent Specter was barely able to beat in the 2004 primary is challenging him once again in 2010.  Although Specter would be a strong favorite in the general election, surviving the Republican primary seems exceptionally unlikely.

But there may be hope for Senator Specter...According to Greg Sargent, both AFL-CIO and SEIU union leaders have strongly suggested that if Specter votes for the Employee Free Choice Act, he will receive their union's official endorsement.  EFCA makes it easier for employees to unionize and is vehemently opposed by the GOP, and any support Specter provides would certainly be the final nail in the coffin of his Republican career.  The possibility of support from labor in 2010 make re-election look likely, but not within the Republican Party.  Even less so as Michael Steele has been flipping back and forth as to whether or not the RNC will withhold financial support from him for his support of the stimulus package.

If Specter is hoping to stay in the Senate beyond next year, he had better decide quickly. If he decides to try to get the GOP nomination and fails, Pennsylvania law forbids him from running in the general election as an Independent or a Democrat.

While it seems exceptionally unlikely and he may simply retire, it seems his best option is to switch to the Democratic Party!  The Republican talking heads love to bash him now, but if he comes over to the Democratic side, perhaps they will fall in love with him just as they have with Lieberman.